Of Masks & Vaccines: Now and To Come

Watching, hearing, and reading the swirl of news about Covid-19, I decided to systematically review a wide variety of news and science sources. In the coming days, I'll be posting a compilation of what I find, designed especially for the layperson. It's clear to me that not even a group of news media, much less a single one, can lead us to conclusions, or even report all of what we need to know even to lead our daily lives and to plan--as much as we can--for the future.  I will publish posts that will help people understand how and why this started, as well as how we handle the situation physically and psychologically. I hope my efforts can lead to helping people prevent and/or recover from illness related to Covid-19, as well as deal with the psychological and even spiritual issues that this situation thrusts upon us. 

Every item I post will have at least one major news source cited. I am also delving into science books, peer-reviewed articles, and other sources that most people have neither the time nor the ability to access, and which rarely appear on traditional news outlets. My first post is about a pressing current issue and a pressing future one: masks and vaccines.

Masks for the Masses:
Save Face, Save lives

Numerous media report that people should wear a face mask only to protect other people. Even the CDC has been quoted as saying this. They know better! We must also wear face masks to protect ourselves. This virus spreads through droplets small enough to enter nostrils, mouth, and even eyes. Wear a mask every time you leave home, even if taking a walk outdoors. You could effortlessly, silently, come home with the virus. Even if you live alone, especially if you live alone, you need to protect yourself with a mask. You matter.  Protect yourself.

It is, of course, also true we need to wear masks to protect others. It's impossible to know if you are carrying the virus or not. The only way C-19 could have spread exponentially is to spread through people with no symptoms. Even if we feel great, we all need to think of ourselves as "constant carriers." Many people who have lived through the full course of infection did not develop a fever. Temperature checks are not fail safe.  Think of yourself on a mission. Maybe you're James Bond, maybe you're a gorgeous member of the French Resistance, maybe you're Zoro.  If you think those images are too high-falutin', think again. You, yourself, are that important in this moment in history. What you do will affect hundreds, maybe thousands of others. Wear the mask, and pat yourself on the back (we'll discuss gloves later!)

We've been told to keep a distance of 6 feet. However, some recent tests, including some reported in the NY Times, found that virus droplets can travel even farther, even up to 21 feet. Think of 6 feet as the bare minimum for physical distancing and keep a mask on, even if walking outdoors. The person who seems far enough away may not be, and a mask will help protect both of you.  

Wear a mask because we are not doing enough testing.  In fact, the US is doing only a fraction of the testing needed. According to science writer Donald McNeil, If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us. He is quoted in the NY Times:

"A fairly strict stay-at-home policy is just the first step in the battle against the pandemic: A Harvard study came out recently that said we should have 5 million to 10 million tests per day across [the U.S.] in order to have a clearer idea of where the virus is, where cases are going up. Cumulatively, all the tests we've done now has been 5 million."

We don't know what we don't know. More than 52,000 Americans have already died this before April has yet ended. More than 1 million are infected. Without adequate testing and knowing a vaccine is not a near-future solution, do the numbers. 52,000 dead within 3 months or fewer. There are likely many others not reported yet. We cannot wait on a vaccine. We need one, yes. I hope we will have one, but we cannot use a hope for this as a waiting game. We have to act now. Wear a mask. (If you have trouble finding one, send me a comment, and I can send links to both cloth and paper masks.)

Have hope, but don't substitute
hope for facts

We cannot assume a vaccine is in the near future.  Most vaccines take up to two years to be viable. The US alone needs hundreds of millions of vaccines. Add the rest of the world's needs to that number. The sheer logistics of production boggle the mind. 

From The Observer in the UK:  "The World Health Organization (WHO) special envoy and one of the world's leading pandemic experts, David Nabarro said that people have to live with the threat of corona virus 'for the foreseeable future'."

"You don't necessarily develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against every virus," he said. "Some viruses are very, very difficult when it comes to vaccine development - so for the foreseeable future, we have to find ways to go about our lives with this virus as a constant threat."

Speaking of viruses which present great difficulties for vaccines...Covid-19 is an RNA virus--not a DNA virus. HIV also is an RNA virus. We do not yet have a sure vaccine for HIV, decades after that virus has killed hundreds of millions. An estimated 33 million people still contract HIV every year.  Covid-19 does not "translate" into "just another flu strain."  It is more complex, an issue I will address in upcoming posts. In fact, I currently think it may have more features in common with HIV than with flu viruses and even other Corona viruses. I'll address this critical feature in future posts. 

Too many cooks in the lab

Not only will a vaccine be immensely complicated to develop, there are currently at least 30 firms competing to make a vaccine, many of them private businesses. It's not wrong to profit from health care solutions. It is, however, unsafe to have no oversight over many for-profit companies rushing to make a profit on something that cannot be rushed. And laws support not sharing between proprietary companies. We do not know if companies are duplicating each other's efforts, or if they could work more quickly with certain fact sharing solutions.

One important example of the danger of "too many cook" in a business setting comes from a BBC report. Glaxco Smith Kline operates a vaccine development facility in South Africa. Of its 1000 employees, 100 recently tested positive for Covid-19 infection.  It was discovered that the facility's employees did not have enough Personal Protection Equipment (PPE).  The government shut down the facility for a few days, and then allowed it to reopen. I have been unable to find a reference to this story today with an online search. My guess is that its footprint has been scrubbed. Did the employees get the PPE they need? Did someone disinfect the entire facility before it reopened? I don't know. As of 2019, Glaxco Smith Kline was the world's sixth largest pharmaceutical company. It is publicly traded. And yet--it did not provide its employees the basic and necessary PPE, while handling what is currently the world's deadliest virus. In fact, no one should work in any vaccine laboratory ever without PPE. GSK stock holders need to hold the company accountable. But that's hard to do when the news appears fleetingly and then disappears. 

To get an idea of the complexity of who's who and what's what in current vaccine development, see this excellent article from Science Magazine.  If you read it all, let me know. I'll give you a virtual gold star!

Takeaway:  Don't let news of a future vaccine lead you into a false sense of hope that prevents you from staying alert to the many present dangers this virus poses. Do not make future personal or business plans based on a hope for a vaccine until much, much more progress has been made. From planning a wedding to redesigning international supply chains, plans can no longer be based on certain assumptions, but rather must be made on assumptions that, just six months ago, we could not have imagined.

One ray of hope in the Science Magazine article and in this NY Times report is the headway that scientists at Oxford are making with regard to a vaccine. 

One last concern about a vaccine. Scientists working on a vaccine for Covid-19 are still learning new things about it every single day. New symptoms were reported just yesteraday from major health resources.  Some reports include mentions of the virus being able to infect the brain and the heart. This raises the crucial question of tissue invasion, and it is almost impossible to measure the amount of a virus in a tissue with a blood test. 

Do they even yet know enough to develop a safe vaccine? I cannot take a flu vaccine because it makes me ill. The only time I had a pneumonia vaccine, I contracted pneumonia. Even with a successful vaccine, it is plausible, even probable, that persons most at risk for contracting the virus will not be able to safely take the vaccine. Even once developed, it will take time, maybe a few years, to determine not only a vaccine's efficacy, but also its safety. This safety is put further at risk when companies do not adhere to protocols in their plants, as GSK did not do in South Africa. And, it will take a great deal of time and investment to simply manufacture the massive amounts of vaccine needed. 

People love to talk about potential. But they often ignore its less positive side. Potential is a description of what is not currently real. A vaccine is not currently real, nor will it be "soon." It has great future potential. Yet, the danger is immediate.

I don't write this to discourage, but to inform and advise. As Churchill said to the Commons three years before WWII began, "It is better to be prepared for a war that does not happen, than to find ourselves at war, and unprepared."

Assume Nothing, Explore Everything, 

Keep Hope in Your Heart

I invite you to join me in assuming nothing, while I attempt to explore as much as possible. Even though this requires hours every day, it seems to me a small offering. I wish it were larger. On the other hand, an invisible virus made of nearly invisible droplets, has slain 227,000 people and counting in less than a year. And I believe it's important for all of us not to let what we can't do keep us from doing what we can.  I still have many hopes for our future. Among those is the hope that what I have to offer here may be of some help to you, a dose of light in a dark time.

Blessings, all.